ICTP vs Malaria

ICTP scientists have developed a new model that integrates climate and disease interactions to predict outbreaks of malaria in epidemic prone regions of Africa.

Highlights of the model were presented in scientific sessions at the 2012 European Geosciences Union's General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, which is being held from 22 to 27 April.

The model, called VECTRI (VECToR borne disease model of ICTP), comprises mathematical models of climate and disease interactions to show the evolution of the vector-parasite cycles in response to weather. The model is driven by temperature and rainfall patterns provided by state-of-the-art weather forecast models for the months ahead, or global climate models for longer time scales.

Using the model, researchers can develop and deploy an early-warning system for disease outbreaks in Africa, and examine changes of health risk in response to a changing climate.

With its ability to be run on fine spatial scales of 10 kilometres or less, VECTRI is the first model of its kind to incorporate factors such as population dynamics, disease mitigation strategies such as bed nets, and the fine-scale surface hydrology of pools and ponds, potentially making its detailed predictions a formidable tool in the fight against malaria.

The model will feed into integrated decision support systems, currently under development, to present monthly, seasonal and decadal climate-health projections to national health planners.

Results from the VECTRI modelling system provide key input to two EU projects focussed on malaria: "Quantified Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWeCl)"; and "Healthy Futures".

"The QWeCI project hopes to provide predictions of malaria several months ahead of current methods, giving countries affected by outbreaks ample time to implement disease-fighting strategies," said ICTP scientist Adrian Tompkins of the Centre's Earth System Physics section, VECTRI developer and co-designer of the QWeCI project with the University of Liverpool, an EU-FP7 project to which 11 other institutions across Europe and Africa are contributing.