Adrian Mark Tompkins

Permanent Scientific Staff
Senior Research Scientist
Adrian Mark Tompkins
Earth System Physics
+39 040 2240 579
tompkins@ictp.it
+39 040 2240 579
tompkins@ictp.it
SISSA-251
http://users.ictp.it/~tompkins
0000-0003-0975-6691

Adrian Mark Tompkins

I am a research scientist in the Earth System Physics section of ICTP.

My research interests focus on cloud and convection dynamics and physics, and their representation in weather forecast and climate models, and how the organisation of convection in the tropics may impact climate sensitivity.

I am a research scientist in the Earth System Physics section of ICTP.

My research interests focus on cloud and convection dynamics and physics, and their representation in weather forecast and climate models, and how the organisation of convection in the tropics may impact climate sensitivity.

Regarding the mandate of ICTP, I am particularly concerned with how weather prediction and climate models can be better applied in developing countries. I have taught at over 35 schools, workshops and training events in Africa, Asia and C/S America in the past 13 years, being the main director/organiser of over 25 of these events in over 12 African countries. In recent years, these have also focussed on training of the use of open-access tools and datasets, particularly those available within the Copernicus climate services framework, hosted and operated by my previous employer ECMWF.

More recently, my research has branched in climate applications of particular relevance to Africa, mostly in the area of health. I am the lead developer of a open-source, regional dynamical malaria transmission model that accounts for climate and population and also a (highly efficient!) agent-based model for cyclic human mobility. If you would like to partner me with projects in this area, please get in touch.

I am a member of the technical advisory group of the malaria section of the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH). I also served as a member on the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on sub-Seasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) from 2012 to 2019 and as member and then co-chair of the scientific advisory committee (SAC) of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) since its inception

Publications

Journal article
2024
The effect of climate change and temperature extremes on Aedes albopictus populations: a regional case study for Italy
Journal of The Royal Society Interface (2024)
Miguel Garrido Zornoza | Cyril Caminade | Adrian M. Tompkins
Journal article
2024
Process‐Based Atmosphere‐Hydrology‐Malaria Modeling: Performance for Spatio‐Temporal Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Water Resources Research (2024)
Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng | Adrian M. Tompkins | Joël Arnault | Ali Sié | Benjamin Fersch | Patrick Laux | Maximilian Schwarz | Pascal Zabré | Stephen Munga | Sammy Khagayi | Ibrahima Diouf | Harald Kunstmann
Journal article
2023
A Dimensionless Parameter for Predicting Convective Self‐Aggregation Onset in a Stochastic Reaction‐Diffusion Model of Tropical Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2023)
Giovanni Biagioli | Adrian Mark Tompkins
Journal article
2023
Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub‐Saharan Africa
GeoHealth (2023)
Edmund I. Yamba | Andreas H. Fink | Kingsley Badu | Ernest O. Asare | Adrian M. Tompkins | Leonard K. Amekudzi
Journal article
2021
Impact of a Mixed Ocean Layer and the Diurnal Cycle on Convective Aggregation
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2021)
Tompkins, A.M. | Semie, A.G.
Journal article
2021
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
Nature Communications (2021)
Chemison, A. | Ramstein, G. | Tompkins, A.M. | Defrance, D. | Camus, G. | Charra, M. | Caminade, C.
Journal article
2021
Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
The Lancet Planetary Health (2021)
Colón-González, F.J. | Sewe, M.O. | Tompkins, A.M. | Sjödin, H. | Casallas, A. | Rocklöv, J. | Caminade, C. | Lowe, R.
Journal article
2021
Separating the indian and pacific ocean impacts on the euro-atlantic response to enso and its transition from early to late winter
Journal of Climate (2021)
Abid, M.A. | Kucharski, F. | Molteni, F. | Kang, I.-S. | Tompkins, A.M. | Almazroui, M.
Journal article
2020
Observed Modulation of the Tropical Radiation Budget by Deep Convective Organization and Lower‐Tropospheric Stability
AGU Advances (2020)
S. Bony | A. Semie | R. J. Kramer | B. Soden | A. M. Tompkins | K. A. Emanuel
Journal article
2020
Monthly entomological inoculation rate data for studying the seasoanality of malaria transmission in Africa
Data (2020)
Yamba, E.I. | Tompkins, A.M. | Fink, A.H. | Ermert, V. | Amelie, M.D. | Amekudzi, L.K. | Briët, O.J.T.
Journal article
2020
Projected shifts in the distribution of malaria vectors due to climate change
Climatic Change (2020)
Karypidou, M.C. | Almpanidou, V. | Tompkins, A.M. | Mazaris, A.D. | Gewehr, S. | Mourelatos, S. | Katragkou, E.
Journal article
2019
Modelled and observed mean and seasonal relationships between climate, population density and malaria indicators in Cameroon
Malaria Journal (2019)
Mbouna, A.D. | Tompkins, A.M. | Lenouo, A. | Asare, E.O. | Yamba, E.I. | Tchawoua, C.
Journal article
2019
The first forecasters’ handbook for West Africa
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2019)
Cornforth, R. | Parker, D.J. | Diop-Kane, M. | Fink, A.H. | Lafore, J.-P. | Laing, A. | Afiesimama, E. | Caughey, J. | Diongue-Niang, A. | Kassimou, A. | Lamb, P. | Lamptey, B. | Mumba, X. | Nnodu, I. | Omotosho, J. ...
Journal article
2019
Aquatic ecosystem changes in a global biodiversity hotspot: Evidence from the Albertine Rift, central Africa
Journal of Biogeography (2019)
McGlynn, G. | Lejju, J. | Dalton, C. | Mooney, S.D. | Rose, N.L. | Tompkins, A.M. | Bannister, W. | Tan, Z.D. | Zheng, X. | Rühland, K.M. | Taylor, D.
Journal article
2019
Dynamical Malaria Forecasts Are Skillful at Regional and Local Scales in Uganda up to 4 Months Ahead
GeoHealth (2019)
Tompkins, A.M. | Colón-González, F.J. | Di Giuseppe, F. | Namanya, D.B.
Book chapter
2018
Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting (2018)
Tompkins, A.M. | Lowe, R. | Nissan, H. | Martiny, N. | Roucou, P. | Thomson, M.C. | Nakazawa, T.
Journal article
2018
The Numerics of Physical Parametrization in the ECMWF Model
Frontiers in Earth Science (2018)
Beljaars, A. | Balsamo, G. | Bechtold, P. | Bozzo, A. | Forbes, R. | Hogan, R.J. | Köhler, M. | Morcrette, J.-J. | Tompkins, A.M. | Viterbo, P. | Wedi, N.
Journal article
2018
Uncertainty in malaria simulations in the highlands of Kenya: Relative contributions of model parameter setting, driving climate and initial condition errors
PLoS ONE (2018)
Tompkins, A.M. | Thomson, M.C.
Journal article
2017
The climate-system historical forecast project: Providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2017)
Tompkins, A.M. | De Záratate, M.I.O. | Saurral, R.I. | Vera, C. | Saulo, C. | Merryfield, W.J. | Sigmond, M. | Lee, W.-S. | Baehr, J. | Braun, A. | Butler, A. | Déqué, M. | Doblas-Reyes, F.J. | Gordon, M. | Scacaife, A.A. ...
Journal article
2017
Organization of tropical convection in low vertical wind shears: Role of updraft entrainment
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2017)
Adrian M. Tompkins | Addisu G. Semie
Journal article
2016
Simulating the impact of flooding on wheat yield - Case study in East China
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (2016)
Li, S. | Tompkins, A.M. | Lin, E. | Ju, H.
Journal article
2016
Health, environmental change and adaptive capacity; mapping, examining and anticipating future risks of water-related vector-borne diseases in Eastern Africa
Geospatial Health (2016)
Taylor, D. | Kienberger, S. | Malone, J.B. | Tompkins, A.M.
Journal article
2016
To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th Century Uganda?
Geospatial Health (2016)
Tompkins, A.M. | Larsen, L. | McCreesh, N. | Taylor, D.
Journal article
2016
Migration statistics relevant for malaria transmission in Senegal derived from mobile phone data and used in an agent-based migration model
Geospatial Health (2016)
Tompkins, A.M. | McCreesh, N.
Journal article
2016
A breeding site model for regional, dynamical malaria simulations evaluated using in situ temporary ponds observations
Geospatial Health (2016)
Asare, E.O. | Tompkins, A.M. | Amekudzi, L.K. | Ermert, V.
Journal article
2016
Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa
Geospatial Health (2016)
Asare, E.O. | Tompkins, A.M. | Amekudzi, L.K. | Ermert, V. | Redl, R.
Journal article
2016
A regional model for malaria vector developmental habitats evaluated using explicit, pond-resolving surface hydrology simulations
PLoS ONE (2016)
Asare, E.O. | Tompkins, A.M. | Bomblies, A.
Journal article
2016
Numerical framework and performance of the new multiple-phase cloud microphysics scheme in RegCM4.5: Precipitation, cloud microphysics, and cloud radiative effects
Geoscientific Model Development (2016)
Nogherotto, R. | Tompkins, A.M. | Giuliani, G. | Coppola, E. | Giorgi, F.
Journal article
2016
Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda
Geospatial health (2016)
Colón-González, F.J. | Tompkins, A.M. | Biondi, R. | Bizimana, J.P. | Namanya, D.B.
Journal article
2016
Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty
Geospatial Health (2016)
Leedale, J. | Tompkins, A.M. | Caminade, C. | Jones, A.E. | Nikulin, G. | Morse, A.P.

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New Aggregation Number Discovered!
 

A new aggregation number predicts convective clustering onset in a simplified stochastic reaction-diffusion model of radiative-convection equilibrium! Be the first to read all about it in this new article submitted to JAMES (click).